Roche will be the biggest mover in the neurodegenerative drugs space during the next 5 years, with the anticipated approval of ocrelizumab driving the company’s share of the market from less than 1% in 2016 to approximately 15% by 2022, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The company’s report states that while Roche will make significant gains, Biogen will remain the largest player in the neurodegenerative drugs market – which includes Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Huntington’s disease and multiple sclerosis (MS) – although its share will dip from around 33% in 2016 to approximately 26.5% by 2022.
Qaisrah Khalid, Analyst for GBI Research, explains: “Roche has one drug in the market for neurodegenerative disorders, Madopar, for use in Parkinson’s disease, although this drug has not been approved for use in the US. However, Roche has three neurodegenerative disorder drugs that are due to be approved in the forecast period, namely ocrelizumab, in 2016, and crenezumab and gantenerumab, both in 2019.”
Ocrelizumab is expected to become a blockbuster drug within 3 years of its launch and will be Roche’s main growth driver in the market. Roche’s revenue from neurodegenerative products is expected to increase at a very rapid compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.97% between 2015 and 2022.
GBI Research also states that overall revenues for Biogen derived from neurodegenerative disorder products are expected to remain stable, increasing at a moderate CAGR of 3.45%. Their portfolio includes Tecfidera and Tysabri, both for Relapsing Remitting MS (RRMS), Pelgridy and Avonex, both for RRMS and Progressive-relapsing MS, and Zinbryta for relapsing MS.
Khalid continues: “Biogen is the market leader in the neurodegenerative disorder space, thanks largely to Tecfidera, which is not set for patent expiry until 2028. Biogen also markets several other drugs in this therapy area, with Plegridy expected to reach blockbuster status within the forecast period, meaning there will not be an overall revenue loss within this market for Biogen.”
“While Avonex lost its patent protection in 2007, it will still remain a blockbuster drug despite revenue losses by 2022. Additionally, Tysabri’s patent is expected to expire in 2017 and is anticipated to be at risk from biosimilar erosion. However, the rate of potential erosion is likely to be slow as biosimilars will be priced at a limited discount to the branded product.”