The global treatment market for multiple myeloma will rise in value from $8.9 billion in 2014 to an estimated $22.4 billion by 2023, representing an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.2%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s latest report states that this increase, which will occur across the eight major markets of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan and urban China, will be boosted by increasing therapeutic options, including the introduction of two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with blockbuster potential, namely Empliciti and daratumumab, during the forecast period.
Dan Roberts, PhD, GlobalData’s Senior Analyst covering oncology and haematology, says the patent expiries of a number of key treatments will pave the way for the new mAbs to have a major impact on the multiple myeloma therapeutics space by 2023.
Roberts comments: “The patents of the two best-selling drugs in multiple myeloma treatment, namely Revlimid (lenalidomide) and Velcade (bortezomib), will both expire in the US and five European countries during the forecast period. As a consequence, Celgene will lose its dominance in this therapy area, with its market share anticipated to fall dramatically from 68% in 2014 to a mere 17% by 2023.”
The analyst adds that Janssen/Genmab and Bristol-Myers Squibb/AbbVie both have very promising pipelines for multiple myeloma, driven primarily by the excitement surrounding their mAbs daratumumab and Empliciti, respectively.
Roberts continues: “Based on GlobalData’s primary research, it is expected that these agents will prove very popular in the stem cell transplantation-ineligible induction setting, and in patients who have relapsed on several prior therapies. We believe that Empliciti will be preferred for use in combination with Revlimid/dexamethasone over daratumumab/Revlimid/dexamethasone, due to Empliciti and Revlimid’s synergistic actions on the immune system and Empliciti being approved first with this combination, while daratumumab will be approved first as a monotherapy in patients who have stopped responding to Velcade and an IMiD.”
Both Empliciti and daratumumab are expected to first launch in 2016. Empliciti is forecast to reach blockbuster status by 2018 with peak sales in 2022 at $4.2 billion, while daratumumab is anticipated to achieve peak sales of $3.7 billion in 2023, according to GlobalData.