The neurodegenerative disorders market, which covers Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Huntington’s disease and multiple sclerosis (MS), is set to grow from $27.2 billion in 2015 to $45 billion by 2022, at a compound annual growth rate of 7.42%, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The company’s latest report states that much of this growth is expected to occur between 2018 and 2022, owing to the approval of many pipeline products within these years. Indeed, several late-stage products are expected to be highly commercially successful, including ocrelizumab, ozanimod, solanezumab, ITI-007 and RG-7412.
Qaisrah Khalid, Analyst for GBI Research, explains: “There is a large pharmaceutical pipeline for neurodegenerative disorders, consisting of approximately 1494 products in active development. The majority of pipeline products are novel active pharmaceutical ingredients, with only a small proportion of products being either generics, or repositioned from other indications – most of which are at Phase I. This indicates progress in terms of different molecules being developed as therapeutic agents within the neurodegenerative pipeline.”
GBI Research also states that several key market players, such as Biogen, Novartis and Sanofi, are forecast to maintain their strong market shares throughout the forecast period, despite the fact that many of the impending patent expiries – especially that of Biogen’s Tysabri and Novartis’ Gilenya – will affect these companies directly.
Khalid continues: “The revenue for the highest-selling product within the MS market – Copaxone (glatiramer acetate), marketed by Teva – is expected to decrease substantially following its 2014 patent expiry, from just over $4 billion in 2015 to $2.5 billion by 2022, owing to competition from generics, such as Glatopa. Declining revenues from this and other drugs will lead to a significant drop in the neurodegenerative disorder market share for Teva.”
“By contrast, the approval of ocrelizumab within the forecast period is anticipated to boost revenues for Roche, making it a major player in the market. As such, Roche is forecast to overtake the majority of currently leading companies in terms of total revenue.”