Despite the imminent patent expiry of many therapies, the global immunology treatment market is set to expand, from $61.5 billion in 2015 to reach $74.2 billion in 2022, says business intelligence provider GBI Research.
According to the company’s latest report, the immunology treatment market’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will equal a relatively stable 2.71%, owing to practical and regulatory barriers to entry for biosimilars that are not present for small molecule generics, and a moderately strong late-stage pipeline.
Dominic Trewartha, Managing Analyst for GBI Research, says: “This market is a lucrative area as up to 7% of western populations are thought to be affected by chronic immunological disorders. Consequently, the pharmaceutical pipeline for immunology is considerable, with 1896 products currently in active development. While 85 of these are in Phase III of the process, it must be acknowledged that 73% of these pipeline products are in early developmental stages.”
GBI Research’s study suggests there are a number of prospective products expected to achieve strong annual revenues during the forecast period, although these are not anticipated to achieve revenues comparable to those generated by the current strongest-selling immunology products.
Trewartha explains: “To date, the most clinically and commercially effective drugs have been in a class of compounds known as monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs), which includes blockbuster products such as Humira (adalimumab) and Remicade (infliximab). APB-501, a biosimilar of Humira, which was the best-selling drug of 2014 worldwide, is anticipated to generate annual revenues of almost $1 billion by 2022, making it an exceptionally strong-performing non-patented drug.”
The analyst adds that while the immunology therapeutics market is a very commercially active area, with a number of exceptionally high-selling products present, revenues for these key drugs are expected to undergo a steady decline towards the end of the period.
Trewartha concludes: “GBI Research believes that revenues for immunology therapeutics will only significantly decline in the long term, beyond the forecast period. This is because of the protective effect of the practical and regulatory challenges in fielding biosimilar products, which reduces the impact of patent expiries on biologics, compared with small molecules.”