The global market for diabetes mellitus and obesity is set to rise from $70.8 billion in 2015 to $163.2 billion by 2022, at a strong compound annual growth rate of 12.7%, according to business intelligence firm GBI Research.
The company’s latest report states that although this growth is largely attributable to a large increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity, a number of pipeline T2DM therapeutics are anticipated to be significant contributors to market growth during the forecast period, with some even expected to reach blockbuster status.
Callum Dew, Associate Analyst for GBI Research, explains: “Recent approvals and pipeline products that are expected to be key players during the forecast period include Tresiba (insulin degludec), Invokana (canagliflozin) and NN-9535 (semaglutide). The disease cluster is dominated by therapeutics indicated for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM, and the majority of the pipeline, in terms of both quantity and quality of products, is attributable to these indications.”
“Although products indicated for obesity do not currently have a large market presence, there are a large number of these products in the pipeline, with the majority in early stages of development. Of course, the growth of the disease cluster is driven not only by the rising global incidence of obesity, but also the subsequent effect that this has on T2DM incidence, given the intrinsic link between the two diseases,” added Dew.
Invokana, which is marketed by Johnson & Johnson, is one of the key players in the disease cluster. It is expected to reach a huge $3.23 billion by 2022, and is set to be approved across T1DM, T2DM and obesity. Although current top-selling drugs such as Januvia, Novolog and Invokana are expected to remain dominant within the disease cluster, four of the anticipated top 10 best-selling drugs of 2022 will be new to market.
Dew concludes: “These products, which include dapagliflozin propanediol plus saxagliptin, NN-9535 and LixiLan, are expected to reach blockbuster status and become key players themselves, indicating the strength and diversity of both the market and the pipeline for diabetes.”