GBI Research LogoThe non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will more than double from $3 billion in 2016 to $6.2 billion by 2023, representing a substantial compound annual growth rate of 10.8%, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company’s latest report states that this growth will follow the introduction of a number of premium therapies such as Yervoy and necitumumab.

Immune-checkpoint inhibitors, such as Opdivo and Keytruda, will also drive growth, with the former recently gaining approval in Japan, Australia and South Korea, and the latter approved only in Japan and currently undergoing Phase III trials in China, Australia and South Korea.

Gayathri Kanika, Analyst for GBI Research, explains: “Owing to strong clinical performances, immune-checkpoint inhibitors will have a greater uptake than other second-line market entrants and will compete among themselves for market share in the APAC region.”

“Chemotherapy will remain an integral aspect of NSCLC treatment, with platinum-based regimens being crucial in the first-line setting for all patients and docetaxel being a key therapy for second-line patients. However, the market share of these generic treatments will slowly decline as premium targeted therapies enter the market during the forecast period.”

Although new targeted and immunotherapies will drive market growth, they will also increase the degree of NSCLC market segmentation and the complexity of the treatment algorithm, owing to their enhanced efficacy in specific patient populations.

Currently, treatment is primarily determined based on histology and molecular characterisations, with non-squamous patients having greater access to therapy, and patients with epidermal growth factor receptor or anaplastic lymphoma receptor tyrosine kinase mutations having access to premium targeted therapies.

Kanika continues: “Broadly speaking, histological and molecular characterization of tumours will play an even more important role in determining the best treatment options in the NSCLC market. The entry of targeted therapies into the market will offset the effect of patent expiries for drugs such as Avastin, Alimta and Tarceva, which will have a limited impact on the market between 2016 and 2023.

“Indeed, the limited effect of patent expiry on the NSCLC market is one of the main reasons for the substantial growth in value expected in the forecast period, as the introduction of numerous premium therapies will not be offset by generic erosion.”